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Monday 16 January 2017

January 16, 2017 at 10:18AM

The legendary Party for the Bulletin is less than two weeks away! An amazing silent auction, delicious beer from our friends at Cumberland Brewing, dance'n tunes and more await you. Come out and support your source of avalanche info on Vancouver Island. Tickets are on sale on line or from Tarbell's Deli in Cumberland or Ski Tak Hut in Courtenay. This event always sells out so get your tickets now.

 

This Bulletin Valid Until: Wednesday 18 January, 2017 6pm. 

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)
 
Outlook Monday Tuesday Wednesday 
Alpine CONSIDERABLE HIGH HIGH
Treeline MODERATE CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line LOW MODERATE MODERATE

Confidence: Fair. Freezing levels and precipitation amounts vary in the modelling.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems) 

Wind Slab- High winds SE and SW and Heavy precipitation amounts forecasted over next three days will create very dangerous avalanche conditions. Natural avalanches are likely in the Alpine and possible at treeline. These avalanches will be large in the Alpine in many areas. At treeline these will be large in specific terrain loaded by Southerly winds. These could be very large in areas that have sensitive slabs from previous conditions.

Storm Slab- Forecasted daily precipitation amounts in excess of 30cm will create storm slab conditions in areas that receive snow. Freezing levels will vary and this concern will shift to wet slabs depending on temperatures. Natural avalanches are possible in many areas and likely in the Alpine.

Wet Slab- Existing slab conditions and new wind and storm slabs will be heavily loaded by rainfall Tuesday possibly to Mountain tops. These avalanches could likely be triggered naturally in many areas and could be very large in the Alpine on any aspect and large at treeline on wind loaded specific terrain. Small avalanches are likely to be human triggered at treeline in many areas.

 

Travel/Terrain Advice: Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended when the Danger level is high. When Dangerous avalanche conditions exist it is essential to evaluate snowpack carefully, choose cautious routes and make conservative decisions. Conditions Tuesday and Wednesday are unlikely to be good for skiing so avoiding travel in avalanche terrain is recommended. 

Past Weather: Clear cold weather and minimal new snow created many wind affected surfaces and surface hoar development in protected areas.

Avalanche Summary: No reported observations.

Snowpack Description:  

Surface-  Surface hoar development in protected areas.The new snow surface is variable by location from undisturbed new snow to wind scoured ridge tops

Upper- A variety of new snow layers exist in the upper snowpack depending on elevation and wind effect. Some of these layers are dense and may be poorly bonded in specific locations. 

Mid- Well

Lower-Well settled and old rain crust(deeply buried) in some locations south(not reactive)

Weather Forecast:

Monday - 33-62cm new snow later in day. Winds SW-SE to 97kmh.  Freezing level  900m .  

Tuesday-  40-90mm precipitation. Winds SE to 73kmh.  Freezing level varying to 2000m .

Wednesday- 22-56cm new snow or rain. Winds SE to 90kmh. Freezing level 1700m. 

 

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

blog post

January 15, 2017 at 08:44PM

The legendary Party for the Bulletin is less than two weeks away! An amazing silent auction, delicious beer from our friends at Cumberland Brewing, dance'n tunes and more await you. Come out and support your source of avalanche info on Vancouver Island. Tickets are on sale on line or from Tarbell's Deli in Cumberland or Ski Tak Hut in Courtenay. This event always sells out so get your tickets now.

Friday 13 January 2017

January 13, 2017 at 05:30AM

This Bulletin Valid Until: Sunday 15 January, 2017 6pm. 

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)
 
Outlook Friday Saturday Sunday 
Alpine MODERATE MODERATE MODERATE
Treeline MODERATE MODERATE MODERATE
Below Tree line LOW LOW LOW

Confidence: Fair. Feedback on wind slab bonding limited.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems) 

Wind Slab- Wind Slab remains the main concern Treeline and above. Human triggered avalanches are still possible in specific areas that have sensitive stiff wind slabs from the last period of weather. These avalanches could be large in isolated pockets of wind redistributed snow that has not settled during the cold temperatures. These heightened avalanche conditions exist at the limits of Treeline and above in the Alpine. Wind slabs may exist on many aspects depending on local weather history.  Warming temperatures over the next three days should slowly settle the snowpack.

 

Travel/Terrain Advice:Identify the wind slab features of main concern. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. Be conservative on Alpine features with high consequences.

Past Weather: Up to 5cm new snow fell since Monday but none since Wednesday and temperatures have remained cold with clear skies. This will have slowed settlement and promoted surface hoar development. 

Avalanche Summary: No reported observations.

Snowpack Description:  

Surface-  Surface hoar development in protected areas.The new snow surface is variable by location from undisturbed new snow to wind scoured ridge tops

Upper- A variety of new snow layers exist in the upper snowpack depending on elevation and wind effect. Some of these layers are dense and may be poorly bonded in specific locations. 

Mid- Well

Lower-Well settled and old rain crust(deeply buried) in some locations south(not reactive)

Weather Forecast:

Friday - No new snow. Winds SW to 23kmh.  Freezing level  600m mid day.  

Saturday-  Trace of new snow. Winds SE to 30kmh.  Freezing level 800m mid day.

Sunday- Trace of new snow. Winds SE to 40kmh. Freezing level 1300m mid day. 

 

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

View older posts »

Monday 16 January 2017

January 16, 2017 at 10:18AM

The legendary Party for the Bulletin is less than two weeks away! An amazing silent auction, delicious beer from our friends at Cumberland Brewing, dance'n tunes and more await you. Come out and support your source of avalanche info on Vancouver Island. Tickets are on sale on line or from Tarbell's Deli in Cumberland or Ski Tak Hut in Courtenay. This event always sells out so get your tickets now.

 

This Bulletin Valid Until: Wednesday 18 January, 2017 6pm. 

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)
 
Outlook Monday Tuesday Wednesday 
Alpine CONSIDERABLE HIGH HIGH
Treeline MODERATE CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line LOW MODERATE MODERATE

Confidence: Fair. Freezing levels and precipitation amounts vary in the modelling.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems) 

Wind Slab- High winds SE and SW and Heavy precipitation amounts forecasted over next three days will create very dangerous avalanche conditions. Natural avalanches are likely in the Alpine and possible at treeline. These avalanches will be large in the Alpine in many areas. At treeline these will be large in specific terrain loaded by Southerly winds. These could be very large in areas that have sensitive slabs from previous conditions.

Storm Slab- Forecasted daily precipitation amounts in excess of 30cm will create storm slab conditions in areas that receive snow. Freezing levels will vary and this concern will shift to wet slabs depending on temperatures. Natural avalanches are possible in many areas and likely in the Alpine.

Wet Slab- Existing slab conditions and new wind and storm slabs will be heavily loaded by rainfall Tuesday possibly to Mountain tops. These avalanches could likely be triggered naturally in many areas and could be very large in the Alpine on any aspect and large at treeline on wind loaded specific terrain. Small avalanches are likely to be human triggered at treeline in many areas.

 

Travel/Terrain Advice: Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended when the Danger level is high. When Dangerous avalanche conditions exist it is essential to evaluate snowpack carefully, choose cautious routes and make conservative decisions. Conditions Tuesday and Wednesday are unlikely to be good for skiing so avoiding travel in avalanche terrain is recommended. 

Past Weather: Clear cold weather and minimal new snow created many wind affected surfaces and surface hoar development in protected areas.

Avalanche Summary: No reported observations.

Snowpack Description:  

Surface-  Surface hoar development in protected areas.The new snow surface is variable by location from undisturbed new snow to wind scoured ridge tops

Upper- A variety of new snow layers exist in the upper snowpack depending on elevation and wind effect. Some of these layers are dense and may be poorly bonded in specific locations. 

Mid- Well

Lower-Well settled and old rain crust(deeply buried) in some locations south(not reactive)

Weather Forecast:

Monday - 33-62cm new snow later in day. Winds SW-SE to 97kmh.  Freezing level  900m .  

Tuesday-  40-90mm precipitation. Winds SE to 73kmh.  Freezing level varying to 2000m .

Wednesday- 22-56cm new snow or rain. Winds SE to 90kmh. Freezing level 1700m. 

 

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

blog post

January 15, 2017 at 08:44PM

The legendary Party for the Bulletin is less than two weeks away! An amazing silent auction, delicious beer from our friends at Cumberland Brewing, dance'n tunes and more await you. Come out and support your source of avalanche info on Vancouver Island. Tickets are on sale on line or from Tarbell's Deli in Cumberland or Ski Tak Hut in Courtenay. This event always sells out so get your tickets now.

Friday 13 January 2017

January 13, 2017 at 05:30AM

This Bulletin Valid Until: Sunday 15 January, 2017 6pm. 

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)
 
Outlook Friday Saturday Sunday 
Alpine MODERATE MODERATE MODERATE
Treeline MODERATE MODERATE MODERATE
Below Tree line LOW LOW LOW

Confidence: Fair. Feedback on wind slab bonding limited.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems) 

Wind Slab- Wind Slab remains the main concern Treeline and above. Human triggered avalanches are still possible in specific areas that have sensitive stiff wind slabs from the last period of weather. These avalanches could be large in isolated pockets of wind redistributed snow that has not settled during the cold temperatures. These heightened avalanche conditions exist at the limits of Treeline and above in the Alpine. Wind slabs may exist on many aspects depending on local weather history.  Warming temperatures over the next three days should slowly settle the snowpack.

 

Travel/Terrain Advice:Identify the wind slab features of main concern. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. Be conservative on Alpine features with high consequences.

Past Weather: Up to 5cm new snow fell since Monday but none since Wednesday and temperatures have remained cold with clear skies. This will have slowed settlement and promoted surface hoar development. 

Avalanche Summary: No reported observations.

Snowpack Description:  

Surface-  Surface hoar development in protected areas.The new snow surface is variable by location from undisturbed new snow to wind scoured ridge tops

Upper- A variety of new snow layers exist in the upper snowpack depending on elevation and wind effect. Some of these layers are dense and may be poorly bonded in specific locations. 

Mid- Well

Lower-Well settled and old rain crust(deeply buried) in some locations south(not reactive)

Weather Forecast:

Friday - No new snow. Winds SW to 23kmh.  Freezing level  600m mid day.  

Saturday-  Trace of new snow. Winds SE to 30kmh.  Freezing level 800m mid day.

Sunday- Trace of new snow. Winds SE to 40kmh. Freezing level 1300m mid day. 

 

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

View older posts »

Important Notice

This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope.

Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.