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END OF FORECAST SEASON FOR VANCOUVER ISLAND AVALANCHE BULLETIN

April 17, 2017 at 07:26AM

The forecasting season comes to a close today for the Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin.

There is still plenty of snow in the Island Alps and avalanche hazard.

For excellent advice on how to manage spring hazards please visit the following page on the Avalanche Canada Website:

http://www.avalanche.ca/fxresources/spring_ovw.pdf

https://www.avalanche.ca/blogs/spring-overview-2015

 

If you have found the bulletin useful or would like to send us feedback for improvements, please let us know by dropping a line to forecaster@islandavalanchebulletin.com

The bulletin is supported by it's users attending two annual fund raising events, The Party For The Bulletin and the Backcountry Fest as well as by our many Vancouver Island Based sponsors. Please note who they are, let them know if you appreciate their support of the bulletin and patronize them as well!

If you are interested in becoming a sponsor of the bulletin please get in touch at forecaster@islandavalanchebulletin.com

Take care out there and we'll be back when the snow flies next winter!

 

Friday April 14, 2017

April 14, 2017 at 05:24AM

This Bulletin Valid Until: Saturday April 16, 2017 @ 6 pm. 

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)
 
Outlook Friday Saturday Sunday
Alpine CONSIDERABLE MODERATE CONSIDERABLE
Treeline MODERATE MODERATE CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line LOW LOW MODERATE

Confidence:  Moderate- limited alpine snow pack observations

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab-   Over 28 cm reported in the last 48 hours accompanied by moderate south east wind have formed wind slab in both the alpine and treeline. These wind slabs will initially be touchy to light triggering but are expected to settle and bond. At higher elevations expect in isolated areas with excellent protection from the sun these wind slabs to remain active during this forecast period. Wind slabs will be found on lee aspects (North west thru to North east) and located in terrain features such as at the base of steep cliffs, below any cornice features, ridge top areas and steep convex rolls. Avalanches from wind slabs could be large (size 2).

Cornice-   Past precipitation and wind combined with warm temperatures have provided ideal conditions to continue to form and grow cornices.These hazardous snow features can be found on ridge tops and on primarily north west thru to north east aspects and in both the alpine and at treeline. As temperatures and freezing levels rise cornices will be fragile, unpredictable and when failing will deliver a heavy load to slopes below and may trigger in isolated terrain a much larger avalanche (size 3). Give these hazardous features a wide berth if deciding to travel either above or below them.

Loose Wet-  These avalanches will become prevalent on Sunday as temperatures begin a rapid rise and the sun will be in full effect. Loose wet will be found on all aspects but especially solar and at all elevations tree line and below. Loose wet avalanches could gain enough mass be large in size (size 2) and will be very touchy to human triggers during the height of daytime warming. Loose wet avalanches are likely to be touchy to human triggers in steep, thin, and unsupported terrain features and when exposed to sun will become immediately unstable and very touchy to triggering.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Freshly loaded lee slopes will remain unstable during and after snowfall expect a rapid change in snow pack on Sunday due to rising temperatures and solar effect on the upper snow pack. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify features and areas of concern. Plan to avoid steep open slopes and unsupported features,choose simple terrain that avoids over head hazards. Be aware of your position within the terrain as even a small loose wet avalanches may have enough mass to push a skier or hiker from a safe stance into hazards such as cliffs or crevasses below.

Past Weather: Over the last 72 hours, mountain alpine weather has seen air temperatures swing from minus six to zero degrees.A total of 30 centimeters has fallen with moderate south east wind.

Avalanche Summary:  Ski cutting on steep west aspect terrain at tree line was touchy and produced numerous small (size 1 ) wind slab with crowns down 20 cm and propagating easily.Day time warming produced widespread loose sluffing and point releases of the upper surface snow on all aspects with the exception of due north. 

Snowpack Description:  Moderate temperatures, new snowfall and freezing levels rising mid day to above 1500 meters is settling new snow rapidly and producing almost daily, a surface crust. A total of over 100 centimeters has fallen above 1000 meters in the last week and a number of shears within this upper snow can be found at varying depths and are producing moderate resistant planar results when tested. The shears are found to be failing on a density change with preserved snow between at least two identifiable well settled slabs. The melt freeze crust buried on April fourth is as well producing moderate resistant planar results and can be found down between 80 to 100 cm and likely deeper than 100 cm in isolated lee aspect terrain. Below this crust a variety of both sun crust and wind crust have been observed and are dependent on orientation to both the sun and wind. 

 Three significant crusts exist in the mid snow pack with the mid February down approximately 250 cm and this being the most pronounced and supportive with facets still being found above and below this crust.The lower mid and lower snow pack continue to settle and with this settlement an increase in density and strength had been noted.

Surface- New snow has buried a well developed surface crust.

Upper-  Numerous melt freeze crusts exist in the upper snow pack.

Mid-  Well settled with lingering persistent weaknesses found between 100 and 200 cm 

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:   A low pressure centered off the north west of the forecast area continues to push storm pulses east, bringing moderate south east wind and light snowfall. Expect this system to dissipate early Saturday, and in its wake a ridge of high pressure will bring to the region clearing sky and north wind. Sunday will see solar effect at its strongest and alpine temperatures and freezing levels will begin to rise rapidly before mid day.

Fri- up to 15 cm new snow.  Winds SW to 40 km/hr.                                                  

Freezing level to 1200 m.

Sat- up to 5 cm new snow. Winds S to 25 km/hr.                      

Freezing level to 1200 m

Sun- Clear sky  Winds NE to 15 km/hr.                                                    

Freezing level to 1500 m. 

 

Prepared by Jesse Percival

Wednesday April 12, 2017

April 12, 2017 at 06:11AM

This Bulletin Valid Until: Friday April 14, 2017 @ 6 pm. 

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)
 
Outlook Wednesday Thursday Friday
Alpine MODERATE CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE
Treeline MODERATE CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line LOW MODERATE MODERATE

Confidence:  Moderate-  uncertain of forecast precipitation amounts

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab-  Forecast strong south east wind and new snow will form wind slab in both the alpine and treeline. These wind slabs will initially be very touchy to light triggering but over a short period of time will begin to settle and bond due to moderate air temperatures. At higher elevations expect in isolated areas these wind slabs to remain active during this forecast period. Wind slabs will be found on lee aspects (North west thru to North east) and located in terrain features such as at the base of steep cliffs, below any cornice features, ridge top areas and steep convex rolls. Avalanches from wind slabs could be large (size 2) and will be touchy to very touchy to light human triggers as snow fall amounts continue to increase and winds persist.

Cornice-   Forecast new snow, wind and moderate temperatures will provide ideal conditions to form and grow cornices.These hazardous snow features can be found on ridge tops and on primarily north west thru to north east aspects and in both the alpine and at treeline.As temperatures rise and snow fall and wind is forecast to increase cornices will be fragile, unpredictable and when failing will deliver a heavy load to slopes below and may trigger in isolated terrain a much larger avalanche (size 3). Give these hazardous features a wide berth if deciding to travel either above or below them.

Travel/Terrain Advice:  Dangerous avalanche conditions exist and travel in avalanche terrain during the height of the danger level during this forecast period is not recommended and should be avoided. If users choose to travel in to avalanche terrain, evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify features and areas of concern. Plan to avoid steep open slopes and unsupported features,choose simple terrain that avoids over head hazards.

Past Weather: Over the last 72 hours, mountain weather has seen air temperatures swing from minus six to zero degrees.A total of 30 centimeters has fallen with moderate south east wind.

Avalanche Summary: Day time warming produced widespread loose sluffing and point releases of the upper surface snow on all aspects with the exception of due north. Warming has been limited and solar effect was at its strongest yesterday with a few small (size 1 to 1.5) avalanches occurring as loose point releases gained enough mass to create a few hazardous avalanches. Terrain such as rocky steep areas and steep solar aspects were most effected and overnight cooling has hardened this debris likely creating a hazard to mountain travel.

Snowpack Description  The upper 60 cm of the snow pack has two significant shears that have been producing moderate resistant planar results when tested and are failing on a density change with preserved snow between two well settled slabs. The melt freeze crust buried on April fourth is as well producing moderate resistant planar results and can be found down between 60 to 80cm and possible deeper than 100cm in isolated lee aspect terrain. Past weather and solar effect and has moistened the upper snow pack and overnight cooling has formed on all aspects with the exception of due north a breakable surface crust. Below this crust a variety of both sun crust and wind crust have been observed and are dependent on orientation to both the sun and wind. 

 Three significant crusts exist in the upper mid snow pack with the mid February down approximately 250 cm and this being the most pronounced and supportive with facets still being found above and below this crust.The lower mid and lower snow pack continue to settle and with this settlement an increase in density and strength had been noted.

Surface- New snow has buried a well developed surface crust.

Upper-  Numerous melt freeze crusts exist in the upper snow pack.

Mid-  Well settled with lingering persistent weakness found between 100 and 200 cm 

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:  A low pressure with moderate strength will pass by the forecast region bringing with it new snow and strong south east wind. In the wake of this semi organized front, a ridge of high pressure will follow producing moderate North winds and clearing sky

Wed- up to 20 cm new snow.  Winds SE to 40 km/hr.                                                  

Freezing level to 1400 m.

Thur- up to 10 cm new snow and 5mm of rain. Winds NE to 25 km/hr.                      

Freezing level to 1300 m.

Fri- up to 10 cm new snow  Winds SE to 25 km/hr.                                                    

Freezing level to 1000 m. 

 

Prepared by Jesse Percival

View older posts »

END OF FORECAST SEASON FOR VANCOUVER ISLAND AVALANCHE BULLETIN

April 17, 2017 at 07:26AM

The forecasting season comes to a close today for the Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin.

There is still plenty of snow in the Island Alps and avalanche hazard.

For excellent advice on how to manage spring hazards please visit the following page on the Avalanche Canada Website:

http://www.avalanche.ca/fxresources/spring_ovw.pdf

https://www.avalanche.ca/blogs/spring-overview-2015

 

If you have found the bulletin useful or would like to send us feedback for improvements, please let us know by dropping a line to forecaster@islandavalanchebulletin.com

The bulletin is supported by it's users attending two annual fund raising events, The Party For The Bulletin and the Backcountry Fest as well as by our many Vancouver Island Based sponsors. Please note who they are, let them know if you appreciate their support of the bulletin and patronize them as well!

If you are interested in becoming a sponsor of the bulletin please get in touch at forecaster@islandavalanchebulletin.com

Take care out there and we'll be back when the snow flies next winter!

 

Friday April 14, 2017

April 14, 2017 at 05:24AM

This Bulletin Valid Until: Saturday April 16, 2017 @ 6 pm. 

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)
 
Outlook Friday Saturday Sunday
Alpine CONSIDERABLE MODERATE CONSIDERABLE
Treeline MODERATE MODERATE CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line LOW LOW MODERATE

Confidence:  Moderate- limited alpine snow pack observations

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab-   Over 28 cm reported in the last 48 hours accompanied by moderate south east wind have formed wind slab in both the alpine and treeline. These wind slabs will initially be touchy to light triggering but are expected to settle and bond. At higher elevations expect in isolated areas with excellent protection from the sun these wind slabs to remain active during this forecast period. Wind slabs will be found on lee aspects (North west thru to North east) and located in terrain features such as at the base of steep cliffs, below any cornice features, ridge top areas and steep convex rolls. Avalanches from wind slabs could be large (size 2).

Cornice-   Past precipitation and wind combined with warm temperatures have provided ideal conditions to continue to form and grow cornices.These hazardous snow features can be found on ridge tops and on primarily north west thru to north east aspects and in both the alpine and at treeline. As temperatures and freezing levels rise cornices will be fragile, unpredictable and when failing will deliver a heavy load to slopes below and may trigger in isolated terrain a much larger avalanche (size 3). Give these hazardous features a wide berth if deciding to travel either above or below them.

Loose Wet-  These avalanches will become prevalent on Sunday as temperatures begin a rapid rise and the sun will be in full effect. Loose wet will be found on all aspects but especially solar and at all elevations tree line and below. Loose wet avalanches could gain enough mass be large in size (size 2) and will be very touchy to human triggers during the height of daytime warming. Loose wet avalanches are likely to be touchy to human triggers in steep, thin, and unsupported terrain features and when exposed to sun will become immediately unstable and very touchy to triggering.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Freshly loaded lee slopes will remain unstable during and after snowfall expect a rapid change in snow pack on Sunday due to rising temperatures and solar effect on the upper snow pack. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify features and areas of concern. Plan to avoid steep open slopes and unsupported features,choose simple terrain that avoids over head hazards. Be aware of your position within the terrain as even a small loose wet avalanches may have enough mass to push a skier or hiker from a safe stance into hazards such as cliffs or crevasses below.

Past Weather: Over the last 72 hours, mountain alpine weather has seen air temperatures swing from minus six to zero degrees.A total of 30 centimeters has fallen with moderate south east wind.

Avalanche Summary:  Ski cutting on steep west aspect terrain at tree line was touchy and produced numerous small (size 1 ) wind slab with crowns down 20 cm and propagating easily.Day time warming produced widespread loose sluffing and point releases of the upper surface snow on all aspects with the exception of due north. 

Snowpack Description:  Moderate temperatures, new snowfall and freezing levels rising mid day to above 1500 meters is settling new snow rapidly and producing almost daily, a surface crust. A total of over 100 centimeters has fallen above 1000 meters in the last week and a number of shears within this upper snow can be found at varying depths and are producing moderate resistant planar results when tested. The shears are found to be failing on a density change with preserved snow between at least two identifiable well settled slabs. The melt freeze crust buried on April fourth is as well producing moderate resistant planar results and can be found down between 80 to 100 cm and likely deeper than 100 cm in isolated lee aspect terrain. Below this crust a variety of both sun crust and wind crust have been observed and are dependent on orientation to both the sun and wind. 

 Three significant crusts exist in the mid snow pack with the mid February down approximately 250 cm and this being the most pronounced and supportive with facets still being found above and below this crust.The lower mid and lower snow pack continue to settle and with this settlement an increase in density and strength had been noted.

Surface- New snow has buried a well developed surface crust.

Upper-  Numerous melt freeze crusts exist in the upper snow pack.

Mid-  Well settled with lingering persistent weaknesses found between 100 and 200 cm 

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:   A low pressure centered off the north west of the forecast area continues to push storm pulses east, bringing moderate south east wind and light snowfall. Expect this system to dissipate early Saturday, and in its wake a ridge of high pressure will bring to the region clearing sky and north wind. Sunday will see solar effect at its strongest and alpine temperatures and freezing levels will begin to rise rapidly before mid day.

Fri- up to 15 cm new snow.  Winds SW to 40 km/hr.                                                  

Freezing level to 1200 m.

Sat- up to 5 cm new snow. Winds S to 25 km/hr.                      

Freezing level to 1200 m

Sun- Clear sky  Winds NE to 15 km/hr.                                                    

Freezing level to 1500 m. 

 

Prepared by Jesse Percival

Wednesday April 12, 2017

April 12, 2017 at 06:11AM

This Bulletin Valid Until: Friday April 14, 2017 @ 6 pm. 

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)
 
Outlook Wednesday Thursday Friday
Alpine MODERATE CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE
Treeline MODERATE CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line LOW MODERATE MODERATE

Confidence:  Moderate-  uncertain of forecast precipitation amounts

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab-  Forecast strong south east wind and new snow will form wind slab in both the alpine and treeline. These wind slabs will initially be very touchy to light triggering but over a short period of time will begin to settle and bond due to moderate air temperatures. At higher elevations expect in isolated areas these wind slabs to remain active during this forecast period. Wind slabs will be found on lee aspects (North west thru to North east) and located in terrain features such as at the base of steep cliffs, below any cornice features, ridge top areas and steep convex rolls. Avalanches from wind slabs could be large (size 2) and will be touchy to very touchy to light human triggers as snow fall amounts continue to increase and winds persist.

Cornice-   Forecast new snow, wind and moderate temperatures will provide ideal conditions to form and grow cornices.These hazardous snow features can be found on ridge tops and on primarily north west thru to north east aspects and in both the alpine and at treeline.As temperatures rise and snow fall and wind is forecast to increase cornices will be fragile, unpredictable and when failing will deliver a heavy load to slopes below and may trigger in isolated terrain a much larger avalanche (size 3). Give these hazardous features a wide berth if deciding to travel either above or below them.

Travel/Terrain Advice:  Dangerous avalanche conditions exist and travel in avalanche terrain during the height of the danger level during this forecast period is not recommended and should be avoided. If users choose to travel in to avalanche terrain, evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify features and areas of concern. Plan to avoid steep open slopes and unsupported features,choose simple terrain that avoids over head hazards.

Past Weather: Over the last 72 hours, mountain weather has seen air temperatures swing from minus six to zero degrees.A total of 30 centimeters has fallen with moderate south east wind.

Avalanche Summary: Day time warming produced widespread loose sluffing and point releases of the upper surface snow on all aspects with the exception of due north. Warming has been limited and solar effect was at its strongest yesterday with a few small (size 1 to 1.5) avalanches occurring as loose point releases gained enough mass to create a few hazardous avalanches. Terrain such as rocky steep areas and steep solar aspects were most effected and overnight cooling has hardened this debris likely creating a hazard to mountain travel.

Snowpack Description  The upper 60 cm of the snow pack has two significant shears that have been producing moderate resistant planar results when tested and are failing on a density change with preserved snow between two well settled slabs. The melt freeze crust buried on April fourth is as well producing moderate resistant planar results and can be found down between 60 to 80cm and possible deeper than 100cm in isolated lee aspect terrain. Past weather and solar effect and has moistened the upper snow pack and overnight cooling has formed on all aspects with the exception of due north a breakable surface crust. Below this crust a variety of both sun crust and wind crust have been observed and are dependent on orientation to both the sun and wind. 

 Three significant crusts exist in the upper mid snow pack with the mid February down approximately 250 cm and this being the most pronounced and supportive with facets still being found above and below this crust.The lower mid and lower snow pack continue to settle and with this settlement an increase in density and strength had been noted.

Surface- New snow has buried a well developed surface crust.

Upper-  Numerous melt freeze crusts exist in the upper snow pack.

Mid-  Well settled with lingering persistent weakness found between 100 and 200 cm 

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:  A low pressure with moderate strength will pass by the forecast region bringing with it new snow and strong south east wind. In the wake of this semi organized front, a ridge of high pressure will follow producing moderate North winds and clearing sky

Wed- up to 20 cm new snow.  Winds SE to 40 km/hr.                                                  

Freezing level to 1400 m.

Thur- up to 10 cm new snow and 5mm of rain. Winds NE to 25 km/hr.                      

Freezing level to 1300 m.

Fri- up to 10 cm new snow  Winds SE to 25 km/hr.                                                    

Freezing level to 1000 m. 

 

Prepared by Jesse Percival

View older posts »

END OF FORECAST SEASON FOR VANCOUVER ISLAND AVALANCHE BULLETIN

April 17, 2017 at 07:26AM

The forecasting season comes to a close today for the Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin.

There is still plenty of snow in the Island Alps and avalanche hazard.

For excellent advice on how to manage spring hazards please visit the following page on the Avalanche Canada Website:

http://www.avalanche.ca/fxresources/spring_ovw.pdf

https://www.avalanche.ca/blogs/spring-overview-2015

 

If you have found the bulletin useful or would like to send us feedback for improvements, please let us know by dropping a line to forecaster@islandavalanchebulletin.com

The bulletin is supported by it's users attending two annual fund raising events, The Party For The Bulletin and the Backcountry Fest as well as by our many Vancouver Island Based sponsors. Please note who they are, let them know if you appreciate their support of the bulletin and patronize them as well!

If you are interested in becoming a sponsor of the bulletin please get in touch at forecaster@islandavalanchebulletin.com

Take care out there and we'll be back when the snow flies next winter!

 

Friday April 14, 2017

April 14, 2017 at 05:24AM

This Bulletin Valid Until: Saturday April 16, 2017 @ 6 pm. 

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)
 
Outlook Friday Saturday Sunday
Alpine CONSIDERABLE MODERATE CONSIDERABLE
Treeline MODERATE MODERATE CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line LOW LOW MODERATE

Confidence:  Moderate- limited alpine snow pack observations

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab-   Over 28 cm reported in the last 48 hours accompanied by moderate south east wind have formed wind slab in both the alpine and treeline. These wind slabs will initially be touchy to light triggering but are expected to settle and bond. At higher elevations expect in isolated areas with excellent protection from the sun these wind slabs to remain active during this forecast period. Wind slabs will be found on lee aspects (North west thru to North east) and located in terrain features such as at the base of steep cliffs, below any cornice features, ridge top areas and steep convex rolls. Avalanches from wind slabs could be large (size 2).

Cornice-   Past precipitation and wind combined with warm temperatures have provided ideal conditions to continue to form and grow cornices.These hazardous snow features can be found on ridge tops and on primarily north west thru to north east aspects and in both the alpine and at treeline. As temperatures and freezing levels rise cornices will be fragile, unpredictable and when failing will deliver a heavy load to slopes below and may trigger in isolated terrain a much larger avalanche (size 3). Give these hazardous features a wide berth if deciding to travel either above or below them.

Loose Wet-  These avalanches will become prevalent on Sunday as temperatures begin a rapid rise and the sun will be in full effect. Loose wet will be found on all aspects but especially solar and at all elevations tree line and below. Loose wet avalanches could gain enough mass be large in size (size 2) and will be very touchy to human triggers during the height of daytime warming. Loose wet avalanches are likely to be touchy to human triggers in steep, thin, and unsupported terrain features and when exposed to sun will become immediately unstable and very touchy to triggering.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Freshly loaded lee slopes will remain unstable during and after snowfall expect a rapid change in snow pack on Sunday due to rising temperatures and solar effect on the upper snow pack. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify features and areas of concern. Plan to avoid steep open slopes and unsupported features,choose simple terrain that avoids over head hazards. Be aware of your position within the terrain as even a small loose wet avalanches may have enough mass to push a skier or hiker from a safe stance into hazards such as cliffs or crevasses below.

Past Weather: Over the last 72 hours, mountain alpine weather has seen air temperatures swing from minus six to zero degrees.A total of 30 centimeters has fallen with moderate south east wind.

Avalanche Summary:  Ski cutting on steep west aspect terrain at tree line was touchy and produced numerous small (size 1 ) wind slab with crowns down 20 cm and propagating easily.Day time warming produced widespread loose sluffing and point releases of the upper surface snow on all aspects with the exception of due north. 

Snowpack Description:  Moderate temperatures, new snowfall and freezing levels rising mid day to above 1500 meters is settling new snow rapidly and producing almost daily, a surface crust. A total of over 100 centimeters has fallen above 1000 meters in the last week and a number of shears within this upper snow can be found at varying depths and are producing moderate resistant planar results when tested. The shears are found to be failing on a density change with preserved snow between at least two identifiable well settled slabs. The melt freeze crust buried on April fourth is as well producing moderate resistant planar results and can be found down between 80 to 100 cm and likely deeper than 100 cm in isolated lee aspect terrain. Below this crust a variety of both sun crust and wind crust have been observed and are dependent on orientation to both the sun and wind. 

 Three significant crusts exist in the mid snow pack with the mid February down approximately 250 cm and this being the most pronounced and supportive with facets still being found above and below this crust.The lower mid and lower snow pack continue to settle and with this settlement an increase in density and strength had been noted.

Surface- New snow has buried a well developed surface crust.

Upper-  Numerous melt freeze crusts exist in the upper snow pack.

Mid-  Well settled with lingering persistent weaknesses found between 100 and 200 cm 

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:   A low pressure centered off the north west of the forecast area continues to push storm pulses east, bringing moderate south east wind and light snowfall. Expect this system to dissipate early Saturday, and in its wake a ridge of high pressure will bring to the region clearing sky and north wind. Sunday will see solar effect at its strongest and alpine temperatures and freezing levels will begin to rise rapidly before mid day.

Fri- up to 15 cm new snow.  Winds SW to 40 km/hr.                                                  

Freezing level to 1200 m.

Sat- up to 5 cm new snow. Winds S to 25 km/hr.                      

Freezing level to 1200 m

Sun- Clear sky  Winds NE to 15 km/hr.                                                    

Freezing level to 1500 m. 

 

Prepared by Jesse Percival

Wednesday April 12, 2017

April 12, 2017 at 06:11AM

This Bulletin Valid Until: Friday April 14, 2017 @ 6 pm. 

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)
 
Outlook Wednesday Thursday Friday
Alpine MODERATE CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE
Treeline MODERATE CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line LOW MODERATE MODERATE

Confidence:  Moderate-  uncertain of forecast precipitation amounts

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab-  Forecast strong south east wind and new snow will form wind slab in both the alpine and treeline. These wind slabs will initially be very touchy to light triggering but over a short period of time will begin to settle and bond due to moderate air temperatures. At higher elevations expect in isolated areas these wind slabs to remain active during this forecast period. Wind slabs will be found on lee aspects (North west thru to North east) and located in terrain features such as at the base of steep cliffs, below any cornice features, ridge top areas and steep convex rolls. Avalanches from wind slabs could be large (size 2) and will be touchy to very touchy to light human triggers as snow fall amounts continue to increase and winds persist.

Cornice-   Forecast new snow, wind and moderate temperatures will provide ideal conditions to form and grow cornices.These hazardous snow features can be found on ridge tops and on primarily north west thru to north east aspects and in both the alpine and at treeline.As temperatures rise and snow fall and wind is forecast to increase cornices will be fragile, unpredictable and when failing will deliver a heavy load to slopes below and may trigger in isolated terrain a much larger avalanche (size 3). Give these hazardous features a wide berth if deciding to travel either above or below them.

Travel/Terrain Advice:  Dangerous avalanche conditions exist and travel in avalanche terrain during the height of the danger level during this forecast period is not recommended and should be avoided. If users choose to travel in to avalanche terrain, evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify features and areas of concern. Plan to avoid steep open slopes and unsupported features,choose simple terrain that avoids over head hazards.

Past Weather: Over the last 72 hours, mountain weather has seen air temperatures swing from minus six to zero degrees.A total of 30 centimeters has fallen with moderate south east wind.

Avalanche Summary: Day time warming produced widespread loose sluffing and point releases of the upper surface snow on all aspects with the exception of due north. Warming has been limited and solar effect was at its strongest yesterday with a few small (size 1 to 1.5) avalanches occurring as loose point releases gained enough mass to create a few hazardous avalanches. Terrain such as rocky steep areas and steep solar aspects were most effected and overnight cooling has hardened this debris likely creating a hazard to mountain travel.

Snowpack Description  The upper 60 cm of the snow pack has two significant shears that have been producing moderate resistant planar results when tested and are failing on a density change with preserved snow between two well settled slabs. The melt freeze crust buried on April fourth is as well producing moderate resistant planar results and can be found down between 60 to 80cm and possible deeper than 100cm in isolated lee aspect terrain. Past weather and solar effect and has moistened the upper snow pack and overnight cooling has formed on all aspects with the exception of due north a breakable surface crust. Below this crust a variety of both sun crust and wind crust have been observed and are dependent on orientation to both the sun and wind. 

 Three significant crusts exist in the upper mid snow pack with the mid February down approximately 250 cm and this being the most pronounced and supportive with facets still being found above and below this crust.The lower mid and lower snow pack continue to settle and with this settlement an increase in density and strength had been noted.

Surface- New snow has buried a well developed surface crust.

Upper-  Numerous melt freeze crusts exist in the upper snow pack.

Mid-  Well settled with lingering persistent weakness found between 100 and 200 cm 

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:  A low pressure with moderate strength will pass by the forecast region bringing with it new snow and strong south east wind. In the wake of this semi organized front, a ridge of high pressure will follow producing moderate North winds and clearing sky

Wed- up to 20 cm new snow.  Winds SE to 40 km/hr.                                                  

Freezing level to 1400 m.

Thur- up to 10 cm new snow and 5mm of rain. Winds NE to 25 km/hr.                      

Freezing level to 1300 m.

Fri- up to 10 cm new snow  Winds SE to 25 km/hr.                                                    

Freezing level to 1000 m. 

 

Prepared by Jesse Percival

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Important Notice

This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope.

Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.